Current development trends across Prime Central London

“Our data shows that the pipeline of supply in the prime central London residential development market has contracted by 70% over the past decade,” says Yazmin Murat, partner in Knight Frank’s Prime Central London Developments team. “Looking at homes with a blended value of £3,000 per square foot and above, with prices ranging from £1 million to over £30 million, the pipeline with properties that have planning permission, are under construction or recently completed has shrunk from 3,350 in 2014 to 1,114 today.”

Total sales across existing and new build homes in 2023 eclipsed £5 billion with £952 million spent on PCL new build homes worth £5 million plus. While that was a decline on 2022 figures, it represented a significant jump from 2013’s historic low of £550 million.

The report details how despite economic headwinds, changes to the non-dom regime and a slow start to the year, demand in PCL is strengthening with increased market activity across enquiries, viewings and reservations.

In the super-prime market, properties priced at £10 million plus, had its strongest year since 2014 in 2023, with a total of £3.4 billion spent on 156 new-build and existing properties.

“Stand-out super-prime transactions in 2023 include two sales north of £50 million in Chelsea at The Glebe and Chelsea Barracks, and one over £30 million at The Glebe,” says Yazmin. “Geographically, this new build market has expanded significantly over the past decade. Where once sales were focused in a smaller core zone, they now cover more ground, including south of the River Thames.”  

Yazmin points to three schemes in different PCL locations, all offering homes under 1,000 square feet: Allen House, Porchester Gardens and Hertford Street Residences. For buyers in prime central London who are not area specific, this trio offers a wide spectrum of choice.

“Allen House is a handsome mansion block in Kensington with apartments build to a high spec and where the listed façade is perfectly in keeping with the local area,” she says. “It has great appeal to domestic buyers, an ideal pied-a-terre of mostly one and two-bedroom apartments with low service charges.”

Prices at Allen House start from £1,100,000 for one bedroom homes and £2,600,000 for two bedrooms. Two three-bedroom penthouses with balconies are £5,110,000.

“Porchester Gardens also serves up a quintessentially British exterior, a white stucco façade with 39 one and two-bedroom apartments,” says Yazmin. “This is close to Hyde Park next door to The Whiteley and will benefit from the exciting regeneration of Queensway as well as the upscale new retail and public facilities within The Whiteley, including an Everyman Cinema and a Third Space gym. Prices start from £1,500,000.”

Prices at Hertford Street Residences start from £1,300,000, and are in prime Mayfair, an area with a rapidly depleting pipeline of new-build developments.

“Popular new developments in Mayfair include 1 Grosvenor Square and 20 Grosvenor Square, both now sold out, and while other schemes include 60 Curzon and One Carrington, Hertford Street Residences is one of the very few with smaller properties for sale,” says Yazmin. “The 16 contemporary one and two bedrooms homes in two grand Georgian buildings will be next door to a branded hotel and in the intimate village-style atmosphere of Shepherd’s Market. Branded residences are increasingly popular with buyers for the convenience and services they offer.”

The Prime Central London Residential Development Update outlines how, given the immediate uncertainty in demand for PCL over the last two months, the forecast is for prices to fall 1% in 2024. “However, as a long overdue period of price inflation kicks in, we expect cumulative growth of 16.4% in the four years to 2028,” Yazmin outlines.