Tom Bill
Head of UK Residential Research
A leading expert on the UK’s prime residential property sector.
Tom’s comments are widely picked up in the British and international media, and he often appears on radio and television to discuss key housing trends and policy issues in the UK.
Tom writes Knight Frank’s industry-leading monthly reports on the prime London sales and lettings markets, and the quarterly Prime Country House price report. He also produces a weekly update on the dynamics shaping the UK housing market and hosts Housing Unpacked, a regular podcast where guests share their expertise on a diverse range of subjects that impact the industry.
Before joining Knight Frank, Tom was a property journalist for seven years, covering market trends in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Reuters.
Prime residential
Explore Tom's insights into the prime residential real estate sector.
Residential
Prime Market Braces for Another Summer of Speculation
June 2026 PCL Sales Index: 4,991.4 June 2026 POL Sales Index: 274.8
06 July 2026
Prime residential
Rental Market Adjusts to Reforms and Future Tax Risks
June 2026 PCL lettings index: 226.0 June 2026 POL lettings index: 232.7
06 July 2026
Residential
Burnham Victory Sparks Questions on Fiscal Discipline and Property Tax Reform
Victory in Makerfield will reignite debate over government’s economic priorities and possibility of property tax reform.
19 June 2026
Prime residential
Prime London Property Market: UK Politics Take Centre Stage as Global Risks Recede
May 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,008.9 May 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.3
29 May 2026
Prime residential
Political Flux to Keep Lid on Prime London Prices
April 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,020.4 April 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.7
11 May 2026
Rentals
Renters’ Rights Act Fuels Growth in Prime London Rents
April 2026 PCL lettings index: 224.5 April 2026 POL lettings index: 230.6
07 May 2026
Prime residential
Middle East Conflict Will Impact UK Housing Market in Four Stages
Once the initial headline shock has been absorbed and higher borrowing costs have stabilised, more political uncertainty may lie ahead for the housing market.
16 April 2026
Prime residential
Conflict Weighs on Buyer Sentiment as Markets Start Pricing in Middle East Endgame
Conflict Weighs on Buyer Sentiment as Markets Price in Middle East Endgame
02 April 2026
Rentals
Demand for Flexibility Drives London Super-Prime Rental Market
February 2026 PCL lettings index: 223.7 February 2026 POL lettings index: 229.0
03 March 2026
Prime residential
Political Uncertainty and Rising Supply Weigh on Prime London Prices
February 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,006.5 February 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.5
02 March 2026
Prime residential
Prime London Property Market Stabilises but Political Clouds Gather
January 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,019.3 January 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.6
09 February 2026
Prime residential
Supply Squeeze Curbs Activity in London Rental Market
January 2026 PCL lettings index: 223.7 January 2026 POL lettings index: 229.0
09 February 2026
Prime residential
Demand in Country Market Improves After the Budget
Country house price index slides further in Q4 2025 but decline narrows as sentiment turns more positive.
19 January 2026
Prime residential
Post-Budget Clarity Spurs Activity in Prime London Markets
December 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,031.6 December 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.2
12 January 2026
Prime residential
Lettings Momentum Builds but Year Hinges on Policy Success
December 2025 PCL lettings index: 223.9 December 2025 POL lettings index: 228.8
12 January 2026
Prime residential
Budget Clarity Brings Short-Term Relief in Prime London Markets
November 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,050.2 November 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.0
08 December 2025
Rentals
Budget Seeks to Tame Inflation but Sets Stage for Higher Rents
November 2025 PCL lettings index: 224.5 November 2025 POL lettings index: 228.4
08 December 2025
Tax
Mansion Tax Announced in Budget of Few Surprises
A new tax on homes worth more than £2 million was announced, but there are questions over how much it will yield in a Budget where politics trumped economics.
26 November 2025
Prime residential
Demand Up, Supply Down: Prime London Rents Rise Ahead of the Budget
October 2025 PCL lettings index: 225.2 October 2025 POL lettings index: 228.4
03 November 2025
Prime residential
Mansion Tax Plans Resurface as Prime London Prices Slide
October 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,068.9 October 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.2
03 November 2025
Prime residential
Rental Value Growth Strengthens as Pre-Budget Nerves Surface in London Super-Prime Market
September 2025 PCL lettings index: 225.2 September 2025 POL lettings index: 228.2
06 October 2025
Prime residential
Treasury Trilemma Curbs Demand in Prime London Markets
September 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,089.4 September 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.3
06 October 2025
Prime residential
Property and Bond Markets Face Pre-Budget Turbulence
August 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,115.8 August 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.6
08 September 2025
Prime residential
London Landlords Test Sales Market as Budget Looms
August 2025 PCL lettings index: 224.9 August 2025 POL lettings index: 227.0
08 September 2025
Residential
Delve into Tom's opinions on the UK's residential property market.
Residential
Prime Market Braces for Another Summer of Speculation
June 2026 PCL Sales Index: 4,991.4 June 2026 POL Sales Index: 274.8
06 July 2026
Prime residential
Rental Market Adjusts to Reforms and Future Tax Risks
June 2026 PCL lettings index: 226.0 June 2026 POL lettings index: 232.7
06 July 2026
Residential
Burnham Victory Sparks Questions on Fiscal Discipline and Property Tax Reform
Victory in Makerfield will reignite debate over government’s economic priorities and possibility of property tax reform.
19 June 2026
Prime residential
Prime London Property Market: UK Politics Take Centre Stage as Global Risks Recede
May 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,008.9 May 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.3
29 May 2026
Prime residential
Political Flux to Keep Lid on Prime London Prices
April 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,020.4 April 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.7
11 May 2026
Forecasts
UK Housing Market Forecast: Q2 2026
We have revised down our near-term house price forecasts but have become more positive over the five-year horizon.
27 April 2026
Prime residential
Prime London Rents Rise as Supply Tightens and Middle East Uncertainty Persists
March 2026 PCL lettings index: 224.1 March 2026 POL lettings index: 229.8
10 April 2026
Prime residential
Conflict Weighs on Buyer Sentiment as Markets Start Pricing in Middle East Endgame
Conflict Weighs on Buyer Sentiment as Markets Price in Middle East Endgame
02 April 2026
Prime residential
Prime London Property Market Stabilises but Political Clouds Gather
January 2026 PCL Sales Index: 5,019.3 January 2026 POL Sales Index: 275.6
09 February 2026
Prime residential
Supply Squeeze Curbs Activity in London Rental Market
January 2026 PCL lettings index: 223.7 January 2026 POL lettings index: 229.0
09 February 2026
Residential
Rate Cut Expectations Fade amid Mixed Economic Signals
Borrowing costs have risen in recent weeks for reasons that include stronger-than-expected UK economic data, tempering the outlook for cheaper mortgages. However, an uncertain domestic and global outlook means downwards pressure could return.
02 February 2026
Residential
UK Haven Status Under Pressure as Geopolitical Risks Rise
While the Chancellor talked up Britain’s appeal to global investors in Davos last week, the property market is still digesting Labour’s first two Budgets.
26 January 2026
Residential
Council Tax Revaluation Plan Risks Unsettling Property Market
Revaluing properties in the top three council tax bands could prove costly and disruptive. The proposal highlights how backbench politics is driving this week’s Budget.
24 November 2025
Residential
Tax Uncertainty Drives Buyers to Beat the Budget
Three months of Budget rumours have stalled activity in parts of the UK economy. But at the top of the property market, some have accelerated their plans before possible new measures take effect.
17 November 2025
Residential
Government Urged to Boost Tax Coffers with Investor Visa
As the Treasury contemplates a manifesto-breaking income tax rise, one group argues that a UK Investor Visa could raise £225bn over ten years and keep wealthy individuals, and their stamp duty receipts, in the country.
10 November 2025
Prime residential
Rental Value Growth Strengthens as Pre-Budget Nerves Surface in London Super-Prime Market
September 2025 PCL lettings index: 225.2 September 2025 POL lettings index: 228.2
06 October 2025
Prime residential
London Landlords Test Sales Market as Budget Looms
August 2025 PCL lettings index: 224.9 August 2025 POL lettings index: 227.0
08 September 2025
Tax
Big Noise, Small Numbers: Property Taxation Back in Focus
Capital gains tax on main homes, council tax reform and scrapping stamp duty are among the proposals ministers are reportedly exploring to plug the fiscal gap.
21 August 2025
Residential
Wealth Taxes, Non-Doms and Capital Flight: Foreign Investors for Britain CEO Speaks to Knight Frank
Leslie MacLeod-Miller talks about how he is spearheading lobbying efforts with the government to persuade them to tweak non dom rules and what he expects to happen next.
18 August 2025
Prime residential
UK Housing Market Resilient as Wider Economy Stutters
Economic data disappoints but UK housing market finds its feet after stamp duty wobble in Q2.
04 August 2025
Rural
Country Market Stirs into Life as Asking Prices Fall
Country Market Stirs into Life as Asking Prices Fall
14 July 2025
Residential
High Supply Keeps UK House Price Growth in Check
Despite an improving interest rate outlook, asking prices this spring will need to reflect the wide choice on offer for buyers
16 May 2025
Commercial
Corporate Relocation Demand Strong Despite Tariff Turbulence
April 2025 PCL lettings index: 222.2 April 2025 POL lettings index: 223.9
02 May 2025
Residential
UK Housing Market Steady as Government Walks Fiscal Tightrope
The spring statement contained no nasty surprises for the UK housing market, but it failed to address concerns about the government’s tight financial headroom
28 March 2025
Finance and the markets
Read Tom's thoughts on the economy, property tax, and financial forecasts.
Residential
Property Market Under Pressure as Bond Market Clash Looms
Higher borrowing costs, driven by a spike in energy prices and concerns around the policy agenda of a new government, are feeding through to mortgages and could cool demand in the housing market further.
14 May 2026
Residential
Mortgage Market Under Pressure as Central Banks Hold on Super Thursday
As the Middle East conflict escalated this week, borrowing costs rose and central bankers deliberated their next move.
20 March 2026
Residential
Mortgage Costs to Fall as Market Prices in Faster Cuts
Cooling inflation, weak jobs data and stronger-than-expected signals from the Bank of England have boosted rate cut expectations. The main risk for the housing market now is political.
23 February 2026
Residential
Rate Cut Expectations Fade amid Mixed Economic Signals
Borrowing costs have risen in recent weeks for reasons that include stronger-than-expected UK economic data, tempering the outlook for cheaper mortgages. However, an uncertain domestic and global outlook means downwards pressure could return.
02 February 2026
Prime residential
Property and Bond Markets Face Pre-Budget Turbulence
August 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,115.8 August 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.6
08 September 2025
Prime residential
Property Tax ‘Trial Balloons’ Add to Financial Market Jitters
Buyers, sellers and the bond market are digesting the recent property tax speculation as government borrowing costs head in the wrong direction
01 September 2025
Prime residential
Price Growth Gap in London Widens to Brexit Levels as PCL Buyers Circle
July 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,134.6 July 2025 POL Sales Index: 275.7
11 August 2025
Residential
‘Don’t Tell Me You Love Me, Show Me’: Investors Challenge Government on Non-Dom Reform
A House of Lords event last week underlined growing disquiet over the government’s non-dom tax reforms. But any new direction on policy may have to wait until the autumn.
28 July 2025
Prime residential
Non-Doms Leave London but Keep Property Options Open
June 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,166.9 June 2025 POL Sales Index: 276.0
07 July 2025
Residential
UK Housing Market Faces a Smoother Ride in Second Half of 2025
As tariff turbulence appears to have peaked and the stamp duty disruption fades, the main risk over the next six months is the autumn Budget.
30 June 2025
Prime residential
Non-Dom Changes Create £401 Million Stamp Duty Black Hole
The falling number of high-value residential transactions has put more pressure on the government’s finances, Knight Frank estimates show
23 June 2025
Economy
Mortgage Outlook Brightens as Economy Stumbles
Rate cut expectations have grown as April tax deadlines dragged on the economy in Q2
16 June 2025
Residential
Transactions to Recover Faster than Prices after Stamp Duty Slump
UK transactions fell 28% in April thanks to higher rates of stamp duty introduced at the start of the month. Will there be parallels with 2016 as sales volumes recover?
02 June 2025
Residential
High Supply Keeps UK House Price Growth in Check
Despite an improving interest rate outlook, asking prices this spring will need to reflect the wide choice on offer for buyers
16 May 2025
Forecasts
UK Housing Market Forecast: May 2025
Price expectations have improved in needs-driven markets, but political uncertainty means we have cut the near-term growth outlook for prime central London
14 May 2025
Prime residential
Wexit Weighs on Demand in Prime London Markets
April 2025 PCL Sales Index: 5,215.1 April 2025 POL Sales Index: 276.8
06 May 2025
Global outlook
UK Property Becoming Safe Haven by Default
International buyers and tenants are looking more closely at the UK due to economic instability and political uncertainty elsewhere in the world
25 April 2025
Economy
Financial Markets Take Breather, Rates Edge Lower but Outlook Stays Unsettled
The tariff turbulence has calmed for now but any downwards pressure on mortgage rates is not guaranteed to last
17 April 2025
Economy
Country Market Steady as Tariff Turbulence Sends Borrowing Costs Lower
Prime Country House Price Index Q1 2025: 269.3
11 April 2025
Government & Policy
Don’t Overlook Foreign Investors in Hunt for Economic Growth
Foreign Investors for Britain lobby group urges the government to look more closely at key parts of its non dom plans as the UK economic backdrop deteriorates
24 January 2025
Tax
Budget Uncertainty and Tax Changes Cloud Horizon for UK Housing Market in 2025
Tax changes, a new US President, and lingering doubts around the Budget will create an environment of uncertainty early next year.
17 December 2024
Forecasts
UK Housing Market Forecast: November 2024
Sales forecasts are revised down slightly after the Budget while rental value growth is expected to increase marginally.
27 November 2024
Global outlook
The Budget, the Base Rate and the US election: your questions answered
We answer your questions on what the Budget, the Base Rate and the US election might mean for your UK property plans
13 November 2024
Residential
US Election: What Does it Mean for the UK Residential Property Market?
What are some of the risks and opportunities for the UK housing market?
07 November 2024
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