Housing Unpacked: The Politics of Property and the Fate of Starmer and Reeves

Last month’s Budget was never going to be a ‘make or break’ moment for the government, according to James Nation, the former Treasury special advisor to Rishi Sunak.

It was designed to avoid anything resembling the mini-Budget shock of 2022, but it will also fail to boost Labour’s low poll numbers, he said on the latest episode of Housing Unpacked.

It means the rumours about a plot to oust Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will only grow louder in January.

See here for our full Budget reaction and the implications for the residential property market.

James also unpicks the chaotic build-up to this year’s announcement, the credibility of back-loaded tax rises and the political and practical risks behind the Mansion Tax.

“This is akin to what we've got on electric vehicles, which is the Treasury basically setting up a new tax that they can build on and develop in the future. It is no surprise to me that we have ended up with an option like this,” he said.

If the past few months have felt like a never-ending round of ‘guess the tax rise’, next year we might be playing a game of ‘guess the Chancellor’.

Any new government would need to tread a delicate path as it appeals to both Green and Reform voters, while not upsetting financial markets, James says.

He also explains why the government isn’t overly-concerned about the inflationary implications of raising rental income tax, whether the Tory plan to scrap stamp duty has legs, and the tricky politics around introducing a UK investor visa for wealthy individuals.