Super-prime's centre of gravity shifts

Elevated financing costs and persistent policy uncertainty have done little to slow the very top end of global residential markets.

Activity across the 12 markets tracked by Knight Frank’s Global Super-Prime Intelligence report climbed to its highest level in a year during Q1, led by sharp rebounds in Dubai, New York, Hong Kong, Palm Beach and Singapore. There were 636 US$10 million-plus transactions during the period, up 14% compared to the previous quarter.

Dubai extended its lead in the index, ranking first for both deal count and value, with 193 sales totalling US$3.43 billion (estimated) in Q1. This represented a 35% QoQ increase by count and value, and a 74% year-on-year rise in transaction numbers. However, this performance should be read carefully. The data was driven by strong activity during January and February and is therefore masking the true impact of the regional conflict that began on 28 February. We expect Q2 numbers to reveal this impact more clearly.

The reordering continues

Hong Kong ranked second, with 94 sales and US$1.84 billion in value, extending its recovery with a 16% QoQ rise in deal count and a 17% QoQ increase in value. New York moved into third place, with 90 sales, up 58% QoQ, and US$1.67 billion in aggregate value, up 48% QoQ. Together, these three markets accounted for almost 60% of all Q1 transactions across the 12-market index.

London improved modestly, rising to fourth place by quarterly deal count with 45 sales, up 18% QoQ, and US$836 million in aggregate value. The increase marks a better start to 2026 after a weaker 2025, although activity remains well below the levels recorded earlier in the cycle. Singapore also strengthened, with 42 sales, up 31% QoQ, supported by a stable value performance of US$624 million.

The annualised figures underline the continued reordering of the global super-prime market. Dubai recorded 581 sales over the 12 months to Q1 2026, well ahead of New York on 341 and Hong Kong on 284. Los Angeles followed with 244, ahead of London on 174. In value terms, Dubai also led, with US$10.55 billion in rolling annual sales, followed by New York at US$6.84 billion and Hong Kong at US$5.44 billion.

The direction of travel is clear: liquidity remains concentrated in a small number of globally connected wealth hubs, but momentum is uneven. Dubai’s Q1 strength needs to be treated as pre-conflict rather than a clean forward indicator. Hong Kong and New York are gaining momentum, London is showing tentative improvement, and several US lifestyle markets have become more variable quarter to quarter. Policy, taxation, geopolitical risk and the path of interest rates will remain key swing factors through Q2.

A more resilient picture

The performance of mainstream residential markets in Q1 continued to show the impact of higher borrowing costs, but conditions were becoming more supportive as central banks cut interest rates.

Global house-price growth across the 55 markets covered by Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index slowed to 1.4% during the quarter, the weakest reading since Q3 2024. This marks a weakening from the broadly stable pace recorded through 2025, when annual growth remained close to 2%. Yet the slowdown in the headline index masks a more resilient market picture beneath the surface: 91% of tracked markets still recorded positive annual nominal growth, up from 87% in Q4 2025.

Key central banks executed 11 rate cuts and four hikes in Q1, extending the easing cycle, although the impact on housing demand is becoming more uneven across markets.

High inflation

Turkey leads the index with nominal annual growth of 26.2%, although high inflation leaves real growth at -3.5%. Hungary follows with 21.4%, while North Macedonia, Portugal and Croatia all recorded annual gains above 16%.

The upper rankings are heavily concentrated in Europe, with particularly strong readings across Central, Eastern and Southern European markets. In total, 12 markets recorded nominal annual growth above 10%. At the other end of the table, Mainland China registered the largest annual decline at -6.3%, followed by Canada at -5.0%. Jersey, Israel, Peru and Taiwan also recorded annual falls.

Quarterly momentum highlights a similar divergence: Estonia, Lithuania, Turkey and Bulgaria posted the strongest three-month gains, while Jersey, New Zealand, Mainland China and Canada saw the sharpest quarterly declines.

Nominal growth

Despite the broad spread of nominal growth, real house-price performance
weakened in Q1 2026. The global real index fell by 1.7% year-on-year, compared with -0.3% in Q4 2025. This shows that affordability pressures have not fully eased and that inflation continues to absorb much of the nominal uplift in
several markets.

The strongest real growth was recorded in Hungary, North Macedonia, Portugal, Croatia and Spain, while Mainland China, Canada, Jersey, Ukraine and Turkey recorded the weakest inflation-adjusted outcomes. A more durable recovery will require lower borrowing costs to translate into stronger demand, while inflation continues to ease.

In other news...

For a new edition of Housing Unpacked, Tom Bill is joined by Alex Webster, Head of Lending at Coutts, for a discussion about wealth, lending and property at a time when political uncertainty and market volatility have become part of everyday life. Listen here, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Flora Harley unpacks the long-awaited response to the Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES) consultation into non-domestic real estate.