Gas prices begin to retreat but oil prices remain elevated

Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. Download the dashboard for in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.

UK labour markets continue to strengthen

Today’s ONS release shows that UK job vacancies have hit another record, exceeding 1.1m in the three months to September, while unemployment fell to 4.5% in August, down from a recent peak of 5.2% in November 2020. These pressures are forcing up wage growth (+7.2% y/y in August), and causing some to speculate over the possibility of an early Bank of England base rate rise.

How is UK economic output faring?

UK GDP and industrial production estimates for August will be released this week. With monthly GDP growth slowing to just 0.1% in July, there will be significant interest in the extent to which supply shortages and rising input inflation since then will have impacted industrial production, wider economic growth, and the UK’s ongoing recovery.

Global minimum corporation tax agreed

136 countries have agreed to a 15% minimum corporate tax rate from 2023 onwards, which the OECD believes could result in an additional tax-take of $150bn per year. UK corporation tax is set to increase from the current 19% to 25% in FY 2023. The UK Government’s Autumn Spending Review at the end of this month is expected to provide further detail on the allocation of the proceeds.

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