Risers and fallers in the global super-prime reordering

Global super-prime (US$10 million-plus) sales fell to 572 during the second quarter, down 7% from the revised Q1 total and a 6% fall compared to the same period a year earlier, according to Knight Frank's Global Super-Prime Intelligence report. 

A redistribution of momentum between markets was the defining feature of the quarter. Dubai retained first place by both transaction count and aggregate value, recording 131 sales worth US$2.17 billion. However, activity fell by 21% by count and 27% by value from Q1, providing the first clear evidence of a cooling from the exceptionally strong levels recorded at the beginning of the year. Compared with Q2 2025, transaction numbers were 8% lower and value was down 17%.

The adjustment does not materially alter Dubai’s position in the global super-prime hierarchy. Over the 12 months to June, the market recorded 541 transactions worth US$9.66 billion, comfortably ahead of every other location in the index. Nevertheless, the Q2 result provides confirmation of the impact of current regional geopolitical instability.

Swing factors

Hong Kong ranked second, with 93 sales worth US$1.67 billion. Transaction numbers were almost unchanged from Q1, while aggregate value declined by 9%. The longer comparison remains considerably stronger: sales were 75% higher by count and 67% higher by value than in Q2 2025, confirming the scale of the market’s recovery over the past year.

New York remained third by transaction count but lost momentum, recording 57 sales worth US$965 million. Activity fell 37% by count and 42% by value from Q1. Miami moved into fourth place by count after sales rose 56% to 53, with aggregate value increasing 32% to US$808 million. Los Angeles also improved modestly from its weak first quarter, recording 49 transactions worth US$692 million.

London delivered one of the quarter’s most notable results. While sales edged down to 44, aggregate value rose 72% to US$1.43 billion, taking London to third place by value. The average transaction value increased to approximately US$32.6 million, driven by a flurry of remarkable sales at the upper end of the market rather than a broad-based rise in sales volumes. Singapore continued to strengthen, with 45 sales worth US$715 million, up 7% and 15% respectively from Q1.

Policy, taxation, geopolitical risk and the path of interest rates will remain important swing factors through the second half of 2026. The central question is whether improving activity across a broader group of markets can compensate for more moderate volumes in the locations that have driven much of the index’s recent growth.

Very high value for money

The Help to Buy scheme, which used government-backed equity loans to help buyers purchase newly built homes with smaller deposits, was designed to boost home ownership and increase housing supply. It succeeded on both counts, according to a study conducted by researchers on behalf of the government.

Between 15% and 30% of first-time buyer mortgages in England can be attributed to Help to Buy over its lifespan. Similarly, first-time buyer mortgage sales dropped between 10% and 15% following its withdrawal. Meanwhile, researchers found that 15% of new builds in England constructed during that period can be attributed to the scheme.

This was an imperfect solution to a complicated problem, and the review reflects that. Five of the key findings include:

– It created significant additional demand: 46% of Help to Buy customers in England said they couldn't have bought without the scheme, but the remaining 54% said they could have bought anyway. Many said they used to scheme to buy a larger home than they could otherwise have afforded. "It is possible.... the scheme may have channelled more... demand into new build homes that otherwise," the researchers said.

– But not in more expensive areas: Help to Buy had 'little effect' on FTB mortgage sales in more expensive areas that required higher deposits. These areas also saw the largest increases in prices. That's not to say the scheme was solely negative for higher value locations; the 15% increase in new builds in England was distributed across the affordability spectrum, alleviating supply pressures to some degree in higher value markets.

– The impact on prices was small: "The Help to Buy scheme is likely to have contributed to slightly higher property prices, especially in areas where local deposits were already high," the report found. In England, prices are estimated to have risen about 2% higher than they would have otherwise, with larger gains in more expensive areas. 

– The scheme represented" very high value for money" – The Help to Buy scheme is estimated to have generated a net present social value of £25.1 billion in 2024/25 prices over the lifetime of the scheme (April 2013 to March 2023), including projected income from equity loan redemptions up to 2039/40. That's a conservative estimate, the researchers said, given the "positive impact on construction jobs supported, improvements to life satisfaction and wellbeing for residents living in new Help to Buy properties and environmental benefits from the efficiency of new homes."

– Context was important –  The findings suggest that Help to Buy's "supply effect was strongest as part of the post-financial-crisis market recovery, when developer confidence and high loan-to-value lending were more constrained," the report stated. "The scheme appears to have been less needed in the later years, once developer confidence had improved and high loan-to-value mortgages had become more widely available."

For a government mulling a new scheme, the researchers clearly guide policymakers toward something more targeted:

"The overarching insight from the econometric analysis is that there was significant variation in the impact of Help to Buy, both geographically and over time," they conclude. "In designing any future such scheme, being explicit about who and which areas are intended to benefit from a scheme will help design similar schemes in the best way, especially if a future scheme aims to support particular groups or particular areas rather than just operating at the macro, national level."

In other news...

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