Super-prime sales - The cities attracting the world's wealthiest buyers

Global super-prime markets recorded 470 US$10 million-plus transactions in Q3 2026, down 19% from the revised Q2 total and 2% from a year earlier, according to new Knight Frank figures. This is a familiar seasonal pattern compounded by a pull-back in Dubai and several US markets.

The success of Hong Kong is the quarter's big story. The city recorded 78 sales worth US$1.58 billion, narrowly taking Dubai's lead on aggregate value for the first time since Q2 2022. Sales were 16% lower than in Q2, but 39% higher by count and 52% higher by value than a year earlier.

The city had a difficult period during the five years following 2019. Political unrest, the pandemic and higher interest rates weighed on its economy and property market, but government efforts to boost financial activity and lure wealthy individuals from other hubs are bearing fruit. Some 116 companies listed in Hong Kong during the first three quarters of 2026, raising more than HK$388.0 billion. That's more than double the amount raised during the same period a year earlier and has already surpassed every previous nine-month total in the market’s history.

Efforts to make it easier for companies to list have come alongside moves to attract wealthy families via tax concessions for family investment vehicles, a HK$30 million investment-residency scheme and dedicated support for setting up family offices. It plans to widen those tax breaks to attract at least 220 new or expanded family offices between 2026 and 2028, according to a speech given yesterday by financial services minister Christopher Hui. 

Top of the hierarchy

While Hong Kong topped our Global Super-Prime Intelligence ranking by aggregate value, Dubai retained first place by transaction count, recording 86 sales worth US$1.57 billion. However, activity fell by 34% by count and 28% by value from Q2, taking volumes to their lowest level since Q3 2024. Compared with Q3 2025, transaction numbers were 16% lower and value was down 21%.

The slowdown has yet to dent Dubai’s standing in the global super-prime hierarchy. Over the 12 months to September, the market recorded 525 transactions worth US$9.25 billion, still comfortably ahead of every other location in the index. But a second consecutive quarterly decline confirms that the exceptional pace of early 2026 has eased.

Developers and investors are beginning to look beyond the slowdown. Emaar, Dubai's largest developer, plans to purchase the rest of its listed construction arm at a valuation of 60 billion dirhams ($16.3 billion), about 25% below the February peak, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Brookfield and Abu Dhabi investment firm Lunate announced plans to establish a new Dubai-based prime residential developer targeting projects across the Gulf.

Standout Sydney

Elsewhere, New York was one of the few major markets to improve, with 62 sales worth US$1.08 billion, up 9% and 11% respectively from Q2, holding third place on both measures. Sydney delivered the quarter’s standout result. Sales more than doubled to 57, the highest quarterly total in our series, while aggregate value rose 77% to US$724 million.

Singapore held close to its recent highs with 44 sales worth US$613 million. London’s sales eased to 42, but value halved to US$722 million as the run of very large deals seen in Q2 was not repeated. The average London sale fell from US$31.7 million to US$17.2 million.

In the US, Miami fell to 30 sales, although value slipped only 6% to US$762 million. Los Angeles recorded just 18 sales, its lowest total in our series. Palm Beach, Geneva and Paris also weakened. Orange County was steadier, with 28 sales worth US$557 million, 25% higher by value than a year earlier.

The overall picture is one of resilience. The 12 months to September recorded 2,240 sales worth US$41.0 billion, broadly in line with the 12 months to June. Asia-Pacific markets took 38% of Q3 sales, up from 29% in Q2, while US volumes fell by 30%. On a 12-month basis, sales in Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney are running 49%, 33% and 27% above their full-year 2025 totals.

Trimming rates

Activity in the UK's mainstream housing market continues to soften, according to a new RICS Residential Market Survey. New buyer enquiries returned a net balance of -24% in October, indicating weakening momentum. Agreed sales posted the weakest reading for three months. 

The outlook over the three and twelve-month time horizons worsened amid rising inflation and mortgage rates. The outlook on that front is a little better than it was when this survey was likely taken. Brent oil is set for a 2.3% drop this week after plunging 16% the previous week. UK lenders have been trimming mortgage rates with increasing regularity – Santander and NatWest have both announced cuts since Wednesday. 

Nevertheless, "the autumn selling season has been more subdued" this year, Taylor Wimpey CEO Jennie Daly said after the company released a trading update this week. The company expects to deliver operating profit for the year at the bottom end of its previously communicated range of £262 million to £299 million. Persimmon was more upbeat: both private sales and values climbed as the company reported a 12% uplift in planning approvals and maintained its target for 12,500 completions this year.

In other news...

What are the effects of climate change on the alpine property market? There is a clear correlation between altitude and price, according to analysis by Anna Ward. Our survey of 24 Alpine markets reflects that: in resorts with a base village below 1200 metres, average annual prime price growth has slowed from 8 per cent in 2022 to -1 per cent in the latest year, while resorts sitting at 1500 metres and above showed average price growth of 5 per cent over the same period.

Of course, there is nuance to this story. The FT takes a deep dive. 

Meanwhile, average prices in prime central London fell 2.1% in the year to October, which means they have been declining on an annual basis for three and a half years, writes Tom Bill. Tom also sits down with economist Damian Pudner, co-founder of the Great British Think Tank, for a new episode of Housing Unpacked. They discuss why the Bank of England should have held, what he heard in the Middle East last week, why he expects an early general election in May, his alternative Budget, and how borrowers should weigh all of this up when choosing a mortgage.

Elsewhere: US home sales fall to lowest level since 2010 as mortgage rates soar (FT).