Leading Indicators | Key signals for 2026
Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. For in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.
13 January 2026
After $52bn invested since 2020, US Private Equity hits decade‑high fundraising
US private equity is entering a new phase of measured deployment. In 2025, the top 10 funds captured 46% of all US fundraising, up from 35% in 2024 and above the 10-year average of 39%, marking the strongest level in over a decade. With US PE raising record capital, the potential for increased investment into UK commercial real estate could be significant. Since 2020, US PE has already deployed $52bn into UK CRE, and this trend could accelerate as capital seeks opportunities.
Sovereign capital returns to UK CRE
As we move into 2026, lower oil prices could accelerate diversification by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) into commercial real estate. For oil-rich nations, CRE offers liability matching, consistent returns, and portfolio stability. This trend is already visible - SWF investment into UK CRE rose to £1.83bn in 2025, a +161% year-on-year increase. With energy revenues under pressure, we expect this shift to continue, reinforcing CRE as a strategic allocation for long-term capital.
And UK Shopping Centres set to outperform…
The latest IPF Consensus Forecast points to a more positive outlook for 2026. All Property total returns are projected at +8.4%, up from +7.1% in 2025. Between 2025-2029, Shopping Centres and Retail Warehouses are expected to be the best-performing sectors with a total return of +8.7% and +8.3% per annum, respectively, followed closely by Industrial (+8.0% per annum).
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