Leading Indicators - BoE expected to hold base rate this week, however UK CRE fundamentals hold firm

UK swap rates extend gradual decline

The UK 5-year SONIA swap rate is currently 3.69%, down -12bps over the past month and -44bps over the year. This downward movement comes ahead of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for Thursday, where policymakers are widely expected to maintain the base rate at 4.25%. Markets now see an 80% probability of a rate cut in August.

And continued signs of recovery in UK CRE point to rising investment appeal

UK commercial property has remained relatively resilient to the direct effects of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In May, the MSCI UK All Property annualised total return edged up by +7 bps month-on-month to 8.55%, while UK Offices saw a more notable increase of +50bps to 3.03%. 

London’s strength as premier tech hub reflects robust occupier market - strongest in EU

London remains a global powerhouse for startups, ranking #3 worldwide, following Silicon Valley and New York, according to the latest Global Startup Ecosystem Report. Last year, London AI startups secured a record $3.5 billion in VC funding, cementing its position as Europe’s top AI hub. With 67 unicorns (startups valued at $1B+) and a robust funding pipeline, London is poised for continued growth in high-value tech sectors.