Leading Indicators - UK financial markets show resilience against global turmoil
Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics. For in-depth analysis into commodities, trade, equities and more.
03 June 2025
UK financial market volatility eases… a relative safe-haven amid rising global risk?
Over the past month, the UK Systemic Stress Index, a key measure of financial stress, has fallen by -86%. Over that same period, the Global Geopolitical Risk Index has surged +106%, driven in part by renewed tensions following recent US legislation reinstating Trump-era tariffs.
Meanwhile, UK aims to boost private market investment by pension funds
17 of the UK’s largest pension providers have pledged to allocate at least 5% of their defined contribution (DC) default funds to UK private assets by 2030, under the Mansion House Compact. This commitment is expected to unlock up to £50 billion in investment, directing capital into local startups, infrastructure, and potentially commercial real estate.
And UK Shopping Centres set to outperform over the next few years…
In the latest IPF survey, the 2025 All Property total return forecast has seen a slight downgrade by -60bps to 8.2%. Between 2025-2029, Shopping Centres is expected to be the best performing sector with a total return of 8.5% pa (per annum).
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