Leading Indicators | Nuance through the noise - UK CRE rental growth showing recovery
18 March 2025
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Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics.
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BoE set to hold interest rates at 4.50% this week
Central banks globally face a pivotal week with key rate decisions ahead. The Bank of England, US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are all widely expected to keep their current rates unchanged at 4.50%, 4.50%, and 0.50%, respectively. In the UK, economists foresee a gradual easing cycle, with three quarter-point rate cuts anticipated, starting in May, bringing rates down to 3.75% by the end of the year.
Multiple international currencies have strengthened against the dollar
Year-to-date, all G10 currencies have strengthened against the dollar, with the Swedish Krona (+10.2%), Euro (+5.7%), and Japanese Yen (+5.0%) leading the gains. The British Pound has also strengthened, rising +3.9% against the greenback. This comes amid growing concerns over US trade policies and economic uncertainty. Despite global currency fluctuations, the pound has remained stable, recently appreciating to $1.30.
UK CRE sees sustained rental growth
The latest MSCI UK Monthly Index shows continued rental growth across all major sectors. Industrial led the way, rising +37% since early 2021, while All Property is up +15%. This sustained growth reflects strengthening demand, particularly in sectors benefiting from structural tailwinds such as e-commerce, supply constraints, and evolving occupier needs.
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