Leading Indicators | Could post-election stability revive flagging business investment?

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Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics.

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UK Industrial set to outperform over the next few years

In the latest IPF Survey, the 2024 All Property total return forecast has seen a slight downgrade by -50bps to +5.4%. Between 2024-2028, Industrial is expected to be the best performing sector with a total return of 8.5% pa (per annum). The lack of volatility in recent surveys indicates a greater level of conviction towards future return profiles.

UK business investment: could a post-election ‘stability dividend’ help increase it?

Firms are paying back, rather than borrowing, according to the BoE, which showed borrowing by large businesses fell to -0.3% in April. Weak business investment – the foundation of future growth - has long been identified as a structural failing of the UK economy. Some are hoping that post-election stability induces a revival in business investment.

The UK Manufacturing PMI lifted to a 22-month high in May 

The UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in May, its strongest level since July 2022, up from 49.1 in April. Meanwhile, the UK Services PMI fell to 52.9 in May, its lowest level in six months, but remained in expansionary territory for the seventh consecutive month.

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