European Leading Indicators | ECB revises forecasts alongside interest cuts

Here we look at the European leading indicators in the world of economics.

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Key insights:

1. Last week, the ECB reduced its main deposit rate by 25bps to 3%, marking the fourth rate cut this year. The ECB also released updated projections, forecasting inflation to reach 2.1% next year, a slight downward revision from September. Meanwhile, it projects Eurozone real GDP to grow by 1.1% in 2025.
2. Though still low compared to prior years, US CRE inbound capital into the Eurozone including pending deals is already 16% higher this year than in 2023.  The relatively attractive Euribor swap rate differential to the US as well as relatively resilient European occupier markets will likely help attract further cross-border capital. For market-specific insights read our outlook for 2025 here.
3. Capital values in Europe show signs of stabilisation, with all-property capital value growth at 0.7% in Q3, according to MSCI. This trend, coupled with falling interest rates, signals a more favourable environment for investment. Read more about the outlook for 2025 here.
   
   

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