Twenty years of The Wealth Report – lessons from two decades of change

Private investors today face a more fractured and complex world than at any point since the publication of the first edition of The Wealth Report in 2007.

The past two decades were characterised by falling inflation, abundant liquidity and an increasingly globalised economic system. Now, that environment has shifted decisively. Recent events, brought into sharp focus by the conflict in Iran, have reinforced a pattern already established by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine: shocks are becoming more frequent, more unpredictable, and more deeply embedded in the global economic system.

In the 20th edition of The Wealth Report, published this week, we bring together our widest-ranging body of insight yet. From our updated global Wealth Sizing Model to an assessment of the outlook for prime real estate markets, from a deep dive into family office strategies to specialist themes including vineyard investment, the evolution of the luxury consumer, and the future direction of luxury asset prices, the aim is to help you navigate risk and opportunity amid heightened volatility.

The sharp end

For investors, the landscape is a challenging one. As recent weeks have shown, transactions can stall, risk appetite can evaporate, and pricing can adjust rapidly. Yet within this complexity there lies opportunity.

This is perhaps best illustrated by the persistent growth of wealth in the US. Despite often sitting at the sharp end of global volatility, it remains the world’s pre-eminent engine of wealth creation. Between 2021 and 2026, the global population of UHNWIs (those worth more than US$30 million) rose from 551,435 to 713,626. That equates to 162,191 new UHNWIs in just five years – or 89 people, somewhere in the world, crossing the US$30 million threshold every single day.

The US has dominated this expansion. Of all newly-minted UHNWIs over the period, 41% were created in the US, reflecting the scale, depth and capital-generating power of the American economy. As a result, the US’s share of global UHNWIs rose steadily from 33% in 2021 to 35% in 2026. Our forecasts suggest this concentration will intensify further, with the US accounting for 41% of the world’s UHNWIs by 2031.

China remains the second major pole of wealth creation, although its relative position is easing. Its share of global UHNWIs slipped from 18% in 2021 to 17% in 2026, and is projected to fall to 15% by 2031. In practice, almost every country is losing global market share to accommodate the relentless expansion of US wealth.

Maturing economies

The data also reveals the degree to which new power centres are being formed. Between 2021 and 2026, India's US$30 million+ population surged by 63%, rising from just over 12,000 to nearly 20,000, a reflection of extraordinary wealth creation across technology, industrials and capital markets.

Growth is set to continue, albeit at a more measured pace, with a further 27% increase forecast by 2031, taking the total to more than 25,000. This trajectory mirrors India’s economic evolution: an entrepreneurial economy maturing into one with deeper capital pools, more sophisticated financial markets and a growing cohort of globally connected founders and investors. Digitalisation, listed equities, private capital and family-owned businesses all play a role. The result is a widening, increasingly durable base of ultra-wealth, anchored in long-term structural growth.

Global UHNWI growth rates over the next five years are not being led by the usual suspects, but by rapidly maturing economies. Indonesia tops the rankings, with its US$30 million+ population forecast to surge 82% by 2031, followed closely by Saudi Arabia and Poland, both growing at over 60%. Vietnam’s near 60% rise underlines the speed at which new centres of wealth are forming across South-East Asia. Europe also features strongly, with Sweden, Romania and Greece all posting robust gains. The picture is one of wealth broadening geographically, even as it continues to concentrate in a handful of global powerhouses.

Plutonomy

A 20th anniversary edition of The Wealth Report wouldn't be complete without a look back at how we covered some of the dominant themes since the first edition, published on the cusp of the Global Financial Crisis, alongside an assessment of which of our predictions have come to pass.

Among those themes is Plutonomy, the economic model in which the wealthy command a disproportionate – and growing – share of global wealth. Back in 2007, Knight Frank researchers met with Citi Private Bank to discuss the concept – the term had been coined by Ajay Kapur, then Citibank's Global Equity Strategist.

For his team, it was an investment thesis. If wealth was concentrating at the top, it made sense to funnel capital into investments that would benefit. At Knight Frank, this dynamic was reflected in prime property markets. Trophy homes, developments such as London’s One Hyde Park – construction of which began that same year – and the most desirable locations were being shaped by a rapidly expanding class of ultra-wealthy buyers. In the naming, Citi turned a cluster of economic forces into a recognisable phenomenon that could be studied and acted upon.

Knight Frank left that meeting with a plan to produce a report that would explore the implications of plutonomy for global real estate markets. The result was The Wealth Report. Its conclusion was clear: if these structural forces were now embedded in the global economy they would shape the trajectory of prime real estate and luxury markets worldwide for decades.

Twenty years on, we caught up with three key individuals who were active in the market when that call was first made to examine how our prediction has played out. You can find it beginning on p. 12.

There is, of course, much more in the report, and we'll be returning to our themes in the coming weeks, many of which look set to shape flows of private wealth through 2026 and beyond.

Downlaod the report here