What’s Ahead for Europe? From House Prices to Red Tape

1. The Year Ahead

Europe is starting 2026 with a full political calendar. Trade talks are underway (India & UAE amongst others), Hungary heads to the polls in spring, and Brussels faces pressure to boost competitiveness while tackling ballooning deficits.

Could France throw in a surprise election? Possibly. 

And then there’s Trump’s Greenland ambitions adding yet another twist to global uncertainty. Moves in Venezuela have only deepened the sense of volatility.

Will Europe escalate or compromise on Greenland? It’s too soon to call. 

But for buyers, the takeaway is clear: security and predictability matter more than ever -  a key finding from our latest European Lifestyle Report in which Lisbon, London, Madrid, The Alps and Tuscany were ranked highest among preferred destinations for high-net-worth individuals seeking to relocate.

Jurisdictions with strong legal systems, entrenched property rights and crucially those that mitigate uncertainty by making swift and transparent decisions will win out.

2. Sentiment

Eight ECB rate cuts have revived sentiment, eased credit conditions and brought buyers back. Central and Eastern Europe remain the growth engine for mainstream housing, with North Macedonia, Portugal and Bulgaria posting double-digit gains.

Prime markets tell a different story with Iberia leading price growth rankings.  Madrid and Lisbon, supported by resilient economies, strong infrastructure investment and an expanding global profile are the top performing markets, up 6.1% and 3.1% respectively in the year to September 2025 with Zurich (5.4%), Geneva (4.2%) and Monaco (3.6%) also in the mix.

With wage growth and confidence still recovering slowly, markets that attract international capital hold a clear advantage.

3. Red tape

Europe’s fiscal reality is starting to bite. 

Deficits remain stubbornly high and with EU budgets tightening, governments are in a bind.

Cutting social spending is untouchable and broad tax hikes aren’t popular — this means property regulation is becoming the lever of choice. 

Expect more changes in 2026: wealth taxes, transaction levies, holiday rental restrictions, and residency-linked fiscal changes. 

Now is an ideal moment for high-net-worth individuals to review long-term plans - whether entering or exiting markets, exploring residency or citizenship options, stress-testing ownership structures, or securing expert advice. Timing is critical: policy shifts can be sudden, as seen with Italy’s flat tax change, Barcelona’s rental restrictions and Switzerland’s proposed population cap.

In other news…

European defence stocks rose 21% this month, (Bloomberg), The UK joins the global push to share property ownership data (PrimeResi), JPMorgan now allows wealthy European clients to borrow against luxury cars (Bloomberg).