Leading Indicators | Global repricing, local resilience

Global bond yields touch highs before easing slightly

Long-dated government bond yields have moved sharply higher across major markets, with UK 30-year gilts recently reaching 5.47%, their highest since the late 1990s, alongside similar moves in the US and record levels in Japan. While yields have pared back slightly from their recent peaks, the adjustment highlights how global markets are repricing long-term rates amid persistent fiscal pressures and evolving policy expectations.

Resilient lending and easing credit support H2 UK CRE investment outlook

UK CRE lending remained resilient in July at £1.8bn, led by £1.7bn in standing investments while development finance stayed subdued. The BoE’s Q2 Credit Conditions Survey shows banks have eased credit availability for the past 18 months, and the balance of lenders planning to improve availability over the next 3 months rose to 34.2%, the highest since 2007. With credit improving and values stabilising, lending should support investment in H2 2025, despite development appetite remaining weak.

Private equity patient in H1, as SWF’s increase activity   

Cross-border sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment into UK CRE surged +320% year-on-year in H1 2025, standing out against a quieter period for private equity. The scale of SWF inflows highlights how long-term, less leveraged capital has been quicker to re-enter the market, while other groups remain more measured for now.