Monday property news update
Brexit talks go on...and on, the importance of walkability and a curious moment for the UK housing market
3 minutes to read
Going the extra mile
The pound rose overnight after UK and EU negotiators agreed to keep talking beyond their self-imposed Sunday deadline.
The key development appears to have been positive discussions on how to maintain a 'level playing field' following Britain's departure from the bloc, according to reports in this morning's Times. Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen did not put a new deadline on the talks this time around, suggesting that they could run until as late as 31 December.
A curious moment for the UK housing market
While sales activity has been exceptionally strong over the last six months, there is a prevailing assumption that this will come to an end in April 2021 - as higher taxes begin to bite.
Before the latest bout of Brexit uncertainty, UK house price forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics and the Centre for Economic and Business Research all pointed to declines that ranged between 5% and 14% next year. Incidentally, Rightmove this morning forecasts a 4% rise for the year.
In a new UK Property Market Outlook, Tom Bill looks at some of the challenges of forecasting during a global pandemic, and outlines why this recession is a little different. Knight Frank forecasts an increase of 1% in 2021, highlighting how a set of countervailing forces may result in a more positive picture for house prices in next year.
Finance jobs have stayed in London
Comparisons with previous recessions, with their own unique labour market dynamics and interest rate backdrops are also of limited use when judging what might take place in the housing market during 2021. Indeed, there has been little uniformity in the performance of different sectors of the economy this year, with hospitality, retail, construction are among the worst-affected sectors, while finance, tech, the public sector and science all seeing jobs growth.
A survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers published by the FT this weekend found that the majority had increased their London headcount since the vote to leave the EU.
Twelve overseas-based banks, which employed about 71,000 people in London five years ago, now have a reduced headcount to 65,000, mostly through group-wide restructurings. Meanwhile, nine of the world’s largest asset managers have seen UK head count rise 35% to more than 10,000 employees over the same period.
Value, health and walkability
The events of 2020 have shone a spotlight not just on how we interact with our homes, but also the neighbourhoods where they are located.
The move to working from home has drawn attention to long commute times, while changing consumer behaviour is boosting the fortunes of local shops and businesses and the sense of community they can provide. So, could we also look back on 2020 as a turning point for how we plan, design and deliver new large-scale developments?
Certainly, the arguments behind building mixed-use, mixed-income, walkable places appear to have been strengthened, according to a new report by The Prince’s Foundation in partnership with Knight Frank. Throughout the UK, greater quality of life, improved mental and physical health, and higher property values generally correlate with a higher level of “walkability” and more mixed-use.
In other news...
A bumper Rural Market Update from Andrew Shirley, Chris Druce rounds up everything you need to know about the property market right now, Philippa Goldstein has this update on the outlook for the hotel sector and Stuart Baillie on tall buildings and the London Plan.
Plus, Barclays returns to high LTV lending, EU’s Michel sees Covid vaccine approval ‘in the coming weeks’, Oracle moves headquarters to Texas, joining Valley exodus, Deutsche Bank raises prospect of moving half its New York staff, Dubai business conditions worsen, China's new home prices slow in November as market-cooling steps take hold, City of London plans ‘back to work’week to revive Square Mile, EU recovery deal to ‘alter permanently’ bloc’s crisis-fighting approach, and finally, for Biden’s economic team, an early focus on climate change.