The Tuesday note - 23 April 2019

• The FTSE 100 remained flat last week, nudging up 22.8 points over the four days, to a close at 7,459.9 on Thursday. Ten year Gilt yields stood at 1.19%. 
• Crude oil prices rallied by nearly 3% following a statement from the US government that they would end all waivers on Iranian oil exports. Brent crude oil was trading yesterday at around $74.00 a barrel. 
• The German government cut its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to just 0.5%, down from 1.0% previously, citing a weaker global economy. 
• China’s GDP grew by 6.4% in Q1 2019 on an annual comparison, which was slightly ahead of the consensus forecast of 6.3%. 

Chief Economist comments: 

The global economy is giving us some very mixed signals. The German government is ringing the alarm bell on growth, with a forecast that is more bearish than the consensus view. This is probably a hint for the ECB to keep rates low. Meanwhile, China’s GDP figures point to a slow growth, but were not as disappointing as many expected. This feels like a turning point moment, where if the necessary support comes through from central banks and governments, we can avoid seeing a deceleration turn into a full blown downturn. The good news is that the central banks are definitely listening, and so are most governments.