Leading Indicators | Boring budget? Tomorrow’s may not be
Discover key economic and financial metrics, and what to look out for in the week ahead.
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Here we look at the leading indicators in the world of economics.
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A late 2024 election could permit a final pre-election Autumn Statement
Betting odds suggest a 78% probability of the next general election occurring between October and December 2024. This may allow for a final pre-election Autumn Statement, which could mean fewer giveaways than anticipated on Wednesday.
Money market expectations for interest rates have fluctuated since the November Autumn Statement, but remain more optimistic for rate cuts
Money market expectations for the Bank of England base rate have fluctuated since last year. Current market pricing suggests the bank rate will average 4.8% in 2024 versus 5.0% previously priced in following the Autumn Statement in November 2023.
Strongest start to the year for UK company incorporations since 2019
The number of UK company incorporations in the first seven weeks of the year totalled 127k in 2024, up +22% on the same period in 2023 and the strongest start to the year since at least 2019 when records began.
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