Rural best wishes for the New Year
With 2024 set to be a period of further political and economic uncertainty, members of Knight Frank’s specialist rural teams share their wishes, predictions and top pieces of client advice on some of the farming and land-use topics that will set the agenda in the New Year
7 minutes to read
A big thank you to everybody who subscribes to my weekly rural ramblings. It’s been great to get such positive feedback from so many of you during the year. To wrap up 2023 and usher in 2024 I’ve asked a selection of my rural colleagues for their hopes, predictions and a word of client advice.
I’ll be kicking off the New Year at the Oxford Farming conference so will hopefully see some of you there. Wishing you all the best for a prosperous 2024.
Andrew
Land use – Andrew Shirley
Wish
That whichever government we end up with next year applies some proper joined-up thinking to the land-use dilemma currently facing the UK.
Prediction
Despite pledging to solve the land-use dilemma, no innovative strategy is forthcoming from the next government.
Advice
Focus on doing what you do better, don’t wait for the government to facilitate novel new income streams that may or may not be of use to you.
Andrew is Head of Rural Research at Knight Frank
Nature-based solutions - Steph Small
Wish
The government to work with Local Planning Authorities to produce standardised guidance around unlocking nature-based solutions to accelerate transformation and deliver schemes, while supporting the development of private markets.
Prediction
While the economic climate will remain challenging in 2024, the natural capital markets including biodiversity net gain (BNG), nutrient neutrality and water neutrality will continue to evolve with more corporate firms investing and entering the market.
Advice
Understand where the opportunities lie within your holding and the natural capital markets. Look at how your land is currently being managed and ask your advisors about present and future natural capital opportunities to help prepare your land for the markets in 2024.
Steph is a member our Horsham Rural Consultancy team with a focus on nature-based solutions
Woodland – Edward Holloway
Wish
That the application process for afforestation schemes is redesigned and streamlined to encourage landowners and investors to create woodland – the current process is lengthy, inconsistent and not fully transparent, which discourages those considering new planting schemes.
Prediction
The amount of new woodland created in 2024 will still be behind government targets, despite an increase in the funding on offer and proposed improvements to the application process.
Advice
Trees offer many social, economic and environmental benefits. If you are thinking of woodland creation, my advice is to first establish your reasons for doing so – having a considered and clearly articulated vision at the outset will help determine how the site will be assessed, designed and established, drawing on your key objectives and motivations.
Edward is a Bristol-based member of our Rural Consultancy team
The uplands – Zoe Coulson
Wish
To see continued funding from any government through grants for baseline data collection across all land types. Those who previously took advantage of the one off grants have benefited significantly to help deliver environmental projects.
Prediction
We see some form of regulation around the metrics for calculating carbon as an increase in tools and calculators arrive on the market.
Advice
Base line data and data collection is essential to helping informed decisions on future land use strategy, and it will help all create a more considered strategy and approach.
Zoe is a member our Northern Rural Consultancy team and has a particular interest in peatland restoration
Nature-friendly farming – Melissa Walker
Wish
A comprehensive and supportive approach from DEFRA, including increased acceptance of higher-tier environmental schemes, a streamlined and transparent application process, and improved communication.
Prediction
Given the experiences of farmers facing rejections and challenges in the current year, I predict that DEFRA might face scepticism regarding its claims of making the application process for environmental schemes more efficient and accessible.
Advice
Participate in collaborative training, such as cluster groups, with fellow farms. Prepare for potential application process challenges through the development of effective contingency plans. Consider building resilience into your system through the adoption of holistic and regenerative methods to reduce dependence on government schemes.
Melissa is part of our Agri-consultancy team and has a passion for regenerative agriculture and other nature-friendly farming systems
English wine – Ed Mansel Lewis
Wish
A reduction in duty for still & sparkling wine.
Prediction
With the ever-increasing number of vineyards in the Southeast of England, that businesses will seek to strengthen brand sentiment and create depth in customer relationships to uphold sales during the off season.
Advice
Great places to visit have a variety of activities, uses and businesses on site. Greater engagement and amenity lead to higher dwell time, which in turn leads to higher average basket values. If you think of your vineyard like a place to visit, you may see complementary offerings that could be built alongside the wine experience.
Ed heads up our Viticulture team
Estate Management
The Renters Reform Act – Anna Collins
Wish
That all residential landlords take this opportunity to review existing letting arrangements and tidy up any loose ends across their portfolio, ensuring that appropriate tenancy agreements are in place and all statutory compliance is adhered to.
Prediction
The legal landscape has changed dramatically in recent years and there is now a more secure tenancy structure on the horizon with reformed grounds for possession and provisions to ensure tenancies are affordable.
Advice
With the Renters Reform Bill likely to receive Royal Assent in the spring it may become more costly and time consuming to obtain possession of residential property if matters are disputed and go to the courts. Don’t ignore the proposed changes and hope for the best.
Anna is part of our Rural Consultancy team based in Melton Mowbray
Farm Management – Sally Britton
Wish
The UK population had a better respect for, and a deeper understanding of, farming, food production and the countryside.
Prediction
The post-Brexit agricultural transition period will continue to have a negative impact on farming profits and unfortunately many businesses will maintain the status quo by not adapting, diversifying and embracing change to ensure their businesses have a long-term sustainable future.
Advice
Embark on a deep understanding of your business, because it is a business. Farming businesses need to accept that the landscape is changing, and they need to adapt by improving efficiency, understanding financial performance, reducing risk by diversification, embracing agri-environmental schemes and improving soil health.
Sally is a member of our Agri-consultancy team based in the north of England
Grants - Henry Clemons
Wish
Whoever is in power they introduce grants to support rural business and help them grow and diversify. Support for capital and conversion costs is essential creating sustainable and environmentally sound businesses for the future will help the economy grow and grant support is needed for the extra costs associated with making businesses sustainable.
Prediction
We will have to find a way to utilise the exciting opportunities within natural capital to support rural businesses and help them grow. Further interesting opportunities will evolve from new partnerships between businesses.
Advice
we have to make the most of what we have now there are a few useful grants and ELMs is an amazing source of funding that we can use to navigate our journey in to natural capital, very exciting times ahead.
Henry is a grant-funding specialist in our Agri-consultancy team
Borrowing – Bradley Smith
Wish
Twelve consecutive months of base rate reductions from The Bank of England!
Prediction
While base rate will reduce next year it will be a lot slower than everyone hopes for.
Advice
With rates now arguably at their peak and both private and high street banks becoming competitive for your business again, now is a great time to reviewing existing borrowings to see what other lenders will save you.
Bradley is a rural specialist at Knight Frank Finance
Renewable energy – Chris Monkhouse
Wish
The government speeds up national grid applications to support the development of deliverable energy projects.
Prediction
Growth in combined energy facilities, to include solar, wind and battery storage together with the development of former energy-generating assets.
Advice
Be creative when considering your options, look beyond the norm.
Chris is a member of our Energy, Sustainability and Natural Resources team
Commodity markets – Andrew Martin
Wish
Higher prices!! More stability in the market and maybe a higher base level. The ‘Ukraine problem’ is well built into the market so influences will be mainly weather based and the carry-over stocks.
Prediction
There will be a global focus on reducing production practices that may not be perceived as good environmental practice: feedlot beef, double cropping soya on ex-rainforest land are two examples. At home the focus will be on high nitrogen milling wheat production practices with disruptors in the market producing bread without the need for high protein and high gluten flours.
Advice
Be business-like in grain sales: Please don’t sell produce off farm without first knowing the cost of production. Have a marketing strategy based on known margins and cashflow expectations.
Andrew is a farmer and member of our Agri-consultancy team
Photo by Saad Chaudhry on Unsplash