Your daily market update from Knight Frank Research, Thursday 9th April
Good morning,
2 minutes to read
Economic headlines
Markets in Asia painted a mixed picture this morning following a three day rally, with modest gains in Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul and a small decline in Tokyo. S&P futures – effectively bets placed on the future trajectory of the US market - remained flat. It's clear investors are weighing the continuing slowing of the outbreak with the long-term implications for the global economy.
A rolling weekly total of Covid-19 data from across European nations now clearly indicates many, including Italy and Spain, have turned a corner. Although the growth rate in the UK is slowing as it closes in on the peak of the outbreak, Wednesday was the deadliest day so far.
UK officials anticipate the lockdown will be extended on Monday. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson's condition was said to be improving after a third night in intensive care.
Economists at Deloitte said any peak of the global outbreak later this month that resulted in restrictions being lifted sometime in May would likely lead to a modest pick-up in economic activity over the summer. Though manufacturing continues to decline, the global Purchasing Managers' Index improved slightly in March due to a revival of activity in China and Taiwan.
EU finance ministers yesterday failed to come to an agreement over conditions attached to loans from the bloc's bailout fund that are intended to support businesses, individuals and public finances.
Property market headlines
Based on the assumption the UK lockdown eases after May, we believe sales across the UK will total around 734,000 for 2020, a 38% decline on last year’s total. While we expect sales will bounce back in 2021, climbing 18% above 2019's total, this revival will not fully offset this year's drop.
Moving home has enormous knock-on benefits for the wider economy, and a material cut in stamp duty or an extended SDLT holiday should be central to government efforts to kick-start the market, says Tom Bill.
Flora Harley continues her analysis of global responses to the pandemic with this probe of quarantine measures.
Austria has set out plans to become one of the first countries in Europe to ease its lockdown. Kate Everett-Allen finds sales volumes are likely to recover in the third quarter of 2020, mirroring the trend we saw post-2008, with domestic buyers driving the initial upturn in activity.
English agricultural land values dipped in the first quarter and the market is now largely on hold until restrictions on movement are lifted, writes Andrew Shirley. We expect values to increase in the third quarter of the year as pent up buyer demand is released.
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