The Monday note - 12 March 2018

• The FTSE 100 closed at 7,224.5 on Friday, up more than 154 points on a week earlier, driven by renewed confidence in the global economy. The ten year Gilt yield stood at 1.49%. 
• The US economy added 313,000 jobs in February, exceeding the consensus forecast figure of 200,000. This was the strongest rate of employment growth since July 2016. 
• According to the Financial Times, hedge funds have amassed $3 billion worth of short positions in the world’s largest advertising agencies. More companies now prefer to use in-house marketing teams to keep down costs. 
• The UK manufacturing sector registered its ninth consecutive month of growth in January 2018, driven by a weak pound and global economic growth. 

Chief Economist comments: 

In the Whitehouse Trump is talking casually about a trade war, in Downing Street the Brexit rhetoric seems to be hardening again. Yet, despite the politicians best attempts to derail it, the global economy continues to march into what is shaping up to be a robust new cycle. However, the dark cloud over the advertising agencies reminds us that this cycle will not benefit all equally. The frugal habits developed in the era of austerity will not be easily shaken off, and this cycle could be hard on industries whose product is a ‘nice to have’ not a necessity.