_The rise of demi-billionaires and where they are based

In four years’ time, there will be more demi-billionaires in Asia than in North America. Wealth data specialist Wealth-X predicts that there will be almost 3,000 people based in Asia who have more than US$500 million in assets by 2022, echoing a key theme from The Wealth Report – the increasing power of Asia as a wealth hub.

Strong global economic growth as well as rising asset prices will boost the number of demi-billionaires worldwide to 9,570 in 2022, up from 6,900 at the end of 2017.

But, despite Asia’s growth, the US will remain the country with the biggest overall population of demibillionaires, expected to rise from 1,830 to nearly 2,500 by 2022. In China, the number will climb by 490 to 990, Wealth-X predicts.

In the 2017 and 2018 editions of The Wealth Report, risk analyst Ian Bremmer and historian Professor Niall Ferguson both highlighted the global economic and geopolitical developments that could pose a risk to growth and stability, not least greater protectionism, the role of technology in promoting political division and rising levels of debt.

The path so far in 2018 has not been smooth, with increasingly tense discussions on trade between the US and China, political wobbles in the UK and Germany and interest rates either already rising or set to do so.

While stock market performance in the US has matched the strong finish seen at the end of 2017, this has not been the case in Europe and Asia.

Nevertheless, the global economy continues to grow strongly, with the IMF forecasting 3.9% growth this year and next, up from 3.8% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2016.

The Economist Intelligence Unit summed up the situation thus in a recent report: “There has arguably never been a greater disconnect between the apparent strength of the global economy and the magnitude of geopolitical, financial and operational risks that organisations are facing.”

So what does this mean for ultrawealthy populations? “There has been a stabilisation in the growth of ultrawealthy individuals,” says Winston Chesterfield, Director of Custom Research at Wealth-X.

“Market volatility has decreased, and the equity and bond performance seen in 2017 has created a sense of confidence. This has augmented the trend towards more entrepreneurial spending among the ultra-wealthy, especially in emerging economies.

“It is too early to say how UHNWIs will react to the political events of 2018 so far – but our data show that they tend to take a longer view. The vast majority of UHNWIs are entrepreneurs and, as such, have dealt with adverse business conditions before. As a result, they are prepared to take a more balanced view in periods of uncertainty or ambiguity.”