_Geo-political risk analyst Ian Bremmer discusses the failure of globalism

Ian Bremmer, a leading geo-political risk analyst and regular contributor to The Wealth Report, was pretty fired up at the London launch of his latest book, Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism, earlier this summer. 

He’s always a passionate orator, but that night he seemed genuinely angry at the state of the world. Having read the book, I can see why. A strong proponent of a liberal global order with an outward-facing America leading by example, Ian is aghast at the rise of populist politicians who polarise society and pit cit izens against one other.

Such populism and its more undesirable consequences, he argues, are the backlash from those who feel they have been left behind by globalism.

I caught up with him after the launch to find out more...

I’ve read a good number of your books and this feels like the most personal and impassioned yet. Did it feel that way when you were writing it, and what made you put pen to paper?

Absolutely. What spurred me was the feeling that the people living in my own country, the United States, have never been as divided as they are now and, rather than addressing the causes of these divisions, most people keep focusing on the symptoms.

I want to be part of a more constructive conversation, and that can’t just mean running a consulting firm that advises the folks that go to Davos. Us vs. Them is my attempt to be a part of the solution.

The premise of the book is that globalism has failed, but the statistics you quote suggest that across the world it has actually helped more people than it has hurt. Isn’t it the failure of Western governments to adapt to the inevitable changing of the world order that is the real problem?

Globalisation has been a great success. It has generated huge amounts of wealth, created the global middle class we know today, extended life expectancy and made literacy near universal.

Globalism is different. It’s a political ideology (and a largely Western one at that) that says open borders, free trade and US-led global security will be good for all citizens of advanced industrial democracies. 

That hasn’t proven to be true at all – inequality of wealth and opportunity is the widest it’s ever been. Western leaders took their eye off the ball and stopped taking care of their people. That definitely wasn’t inevitable.

Above: Ian Bremmer's new book: Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism

Even without globalism, wouldn’t we have many of the problems blamed on it? You argue, for example, that increased automation has actually destroyed more jobs in Europe and North America than competition from cheap labour in developing economies.

Automation is a big challenge and exacerbates opposition to globalism, but it’s a challenge to which governments can respond by improving the social safety net and moving towards universal lifetime training.

Corporations can be part of the solution too, and we’re already seeing some of them start to move in that direction.

The book is full of worrying statistics – I was shocked that only 57% of young Americans think it is important to live in a democratic country – but if you had to choose, which frightens you the most?

I’d pick that one too, because it suggests that a large percentage of Americans think their system is rigged against them. That means they think the American dream is dead. We have to fix this, and sooner rather than later.

What do you think the consequences will be if our politicians aren’t capable of finding solutions to the issues you highlight in the book?

Far more walls – both real and virtual, and of the external and internal variety. Put another way, more structural inequality that allows for more dehumanisation of people. 

How optimistic are you that our politicians have the solutions to the issues you highlight in the book, if indeed they want to address them?

I’m not optimistic at all. Clearly, these people do not have the solutions. What that means is that the solutions will need to start as smaller-scale experiments from local governments, companies and individuals, and grow from there. There’s certainly hope.

If not, what will the consequences be?

War. Revolution. Cats and dogs sleeping together. You name it. None of it is good, so let’s start working on the solutions instead of fighting each other.